The Explanatory Memorandum for this amendment is claiming a $160 million benefit TO the Govt, but strangely [even for Abbott] has declined to give any reasons at all, meaning the EM is worthless except for the clue of the $160 million.
And all the loyal "One Year Wonder" consultants are finding that FOR that year #1 Grandfather Rule "Rules OK".
But for all the true and hypothetical cases we have run through the LOPS to date Grandfather REALLY has whiskers over 20 years, because "with Grandfather the Sting is in the Tail", from about 75 to 85 for most folk.
But while the One Year Wonders don't [by definition] do modelling one has to assume that the Govt DOES, and it seems they are telling big porkies about the real situation.
From our test cases so far it is looking like the average pensioner or couple could [with a proper plan] be $50,000 or so BETTER off if they can escape from Grandfather and use the New Rule.
That means two things, firstly the savings to the Govt will come from the Terror campaign to KEEP people Grandfathered and secondly that the true savings will [save for whistleblowing, eg 75 year olds just reading this blog and DE-Grandfathering] be MUCH more than $160 million - nor would it end in 4 years time.
But we must remember that as huge as these "savings" are, they are already IN the Govt Piggy Bank Budget, and the REAL danger is that if all these 75 year olds got smart and "swept" their products to go under New Rule there would be a huge LOSS to the Govt, of many BILLIONS. So same as for Rummy, the WMD Genie had to stay IN the bottle or no Iraq war and no oil.
So that begs the question of why MAKE the amendment in the first place? - and our guess is the normal "legal reasons". So let's move to that.
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