Monday, December 1, 2014

The Devil's Advocate

We tried to play the Devil's Advocate for the Govt, thinking that the Allocated Pension of $200,000 we gave to Ennis and Alma was maybe not realistic, and giving the wrong impression in the results.

Alas the REVERSE is true.  We increased the Allocated Pension in steps, to $300,000, then $500,000 and finally $800,000 and here are the results.

As you will see as the Allocated Pension quadruples from $200,000 to $800,000 so does the difference between the Testing regimes quadruple from about $50,000 to almost $200,000.  That is to say that while the actual Age Pension over 20 years [for the RED Grandfather Squares] decreased from $650,000 down to $200,000, the GREEN Square Testing is not as severe, so the difference increased.

That is obviously NOT what the Govt wanted to find, so all the MORE reason they need to keep this all TOP SECRET to KEEP all the current Pensioners under the control of Grandfather.

If you have not fully understood the maths involved here, the example for $800,000 Allocated Pension below helps greatly in understanding the issue.

This is the New Rule Testing and you will see for Year #1 that while the Income Deeming is reducing the Age Pension from $33,000 pa down to about $22,000, the Asset Test has already nailed it down to $10,000.  Then as the Capital reduces, the Age Pension gradually and linearly increases year by year to age 83 when the full pension starts to apply [albeit ABS says the Pensioner should die right there and the Age Pension end].

But for the Grandfather Rule [follow the RED Resultant Pension Line in middle graph] everything is the same up to age 75 when, Bingo, the Income Test starts to chomp in more and more till no Age Pension at all at age 85.

So our original estimate of the Govt LOSS, being some $5 billion pa if these 75 to 85 years olds get smart and get short of Grandfather, is now looking very light on and more like $10 billion pa, meaning TOP SECRET alert is almost mandatory.

So back to the SWOT Analysis to help Abbott keep his dirty secret.

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